San Francisco Seminar 2009 Day 1
The status of e-commerce and digital purchasing patterns
Introduction and context
Day 1 opened the seminar with a massive, data-driven insight into how the 2008–2009 financial crisis impacted online shopping and consumer behavior in the United States.
This was not a year where theory and practice were far apart — everything was turned upside down at the same time: consumer confidence, financial security, shopping patterns, channel choices, and the entire logic behind digital marketing.
comScore presented figures that showed a historic turning point: For the first time since the dawn of e-commerce, growth fell — not just slightly, but significantly. At the same time, Forrester forecasts showed that the decline would not last; digital channels would be stronger after the crisis than before it.
This was the day that taught us that:
When the market is turbulent, the consumer moves – and digitalization accelerates.
Program overview
Day 1 – Monday, March 16 (Hotel Nikko) consisted of two heavy technical sections:
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The State of the US Online Retail Economy (comScore)
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With focus on:
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Developments in American online shopping through 2008
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the fall in Q4 and early signals in Q1 2009
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how different income groups changed behavior
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which product genres were hit hardest
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price awareness, coupon economy and search patterns
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the shift towards security and value
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US Ecommerce Forecast 2009–2013 (Forrester Research)
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With focus on:
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expected market reconstruction
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new growth engine after 2010
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why e-commerce emerged stronger from the crisis
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which categories and innovations would drive future growth
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the role of search, personalization, loyalty, and convenience
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Together, these two presentations provided a crystal-clear picture of a digital industry in crisis — but also of the opportunities that lay ahead.
Main academic topics
A) The financial crisis as a shock to the digital economy
comScore showed that e-commerce growth fell from a stable 20–25% annually to –3% in Q4 2008.
The graphs clearly showed that this was not a temporary dip, but a structural shock.
For the first time, e-commerce was tested in a real recessionary market.
Key point:
Crises expose weaknesses, but they also reveal what actually works. Under pressure, digital channels are measured harder, used more frequently — and improved faster.
B) The consumer is moving towards security and price awareness
The figures from comScore showed:
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Massive increase in searches for economy-related words, such as unemployment, foreclosure, discount (in several cases +200%)
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Coupon usage increased 20–40%
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Purchases shifted from luxuries to necessities
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Income disparities were greatly amplified:
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< $50,000: –17% in online spending
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$100,000: +17% increase
This gave a new analytical picture:
Digital trends are not one trend — they are segmented by financial security.
C) The category that grew – and the categories that collapsed
The comScore data showed a clear pattern:
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Categories that grew
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books and magazines (home use)
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sports and fitness equipment (home training)
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hobby items
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streaming-related content
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Categories that fell the most
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jewelry
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electronics
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luxury goods
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games and entertainment in physical form
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This showed the emergence of what comScore called “the cocooning effect”:
People are spending more time at home – and investing there.
D) Marketing logic was turned on its head
Search, discounts and price hunting became the nerve of the purchasing process.
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67% of consumers stated that search engines were “very important”.
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Price awareness rose to historic levels.
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Referral marketing (search, email, coupon websites) increased from 18% to 27% of transactions.
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ComScore clearly showed that brands had to prove value, not just tell about it.
It was the start of:
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performance marketing
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early attributional thinking
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measured ROI per channel
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data-driven messages
E) Forrester: The crisis will be a turning point – not a permanent decline
The Forrester report painted a bigger picture:
Although 2009 was a weaker year, e-commerce would grow again from 2010 — and faster than before.
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Drivers of growth (from the report):
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higher internet penetration
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increased digital maturity
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search and comparison services that increase price transparency
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convenience as a competitive factor
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early loyalty and recommendation systems
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The most interesting thing from Forrester was the conclusion:
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The financial crisis is accelerating the transition to digital trading habits.
Case studies
Case 1: comScore – The US market in free fall
The presentation showed:
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decline in total retail sales
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even greater decline in “optional” trade
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significant growth in “home categories”
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strong division by income level
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extreme increase in coupon use
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record low levels of consumer confidence (measured via the Confidence Index)
This case was valuable because it gave us insight into what happens when people get scared — and how commerce adapts accordingly .
Case 2: Forrester – The Future of Growth
Forrester showed:
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2009 will be a weaker year, but not a lasting setback
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Growth drivers lie in technology, not economics
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Price awareness strengthens digital players
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customer data becomes a long-term competitive advantage
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Search becomes the gateway to all commerce
This case gave participants confidence that 2009 was not the end — but a starting point.
Reflections and discussion:
The discussions from Day 1 revolved around three questions:
How do you build customer trust in troubled times?
The answers pointed to transparency, price, logistics, clarity and consistency.
How do you measure a customer moving between channels?
The beginning of modern attribution:
last click
segment-based analysis
keyword-intent
canal hygiene
What do leaders do when crisis hits?
Common insights:
You need to invest in insight, not cut it.
International perspectives
United States
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most hard hit
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rapid adaptation in digital marketing
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consumers became extremely price-focused
Europe
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slower restructuring
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several countries increased VAT/taxes
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the coupon economy came later
The Nordic countries
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digital trust high
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logistics and payment far ahead of the US
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smaller drop in online shopping
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strong inhibition in the luxury segment, but stability in practical categories
What do we take home with us?
Day 1 gave us insights that have shaped all work in digital commerce since:
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Trust is currency.
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Data is a management tool, not an afterthought.
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Multichannel is robustness.
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Consumer behavior changes rapidly, but not randomly.
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Crises make customers more rational.
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Commerce moves where safety is — not where brands want.
Relevance today
2025 has many parallels to 2009:
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geopolitical unrest → increased price awareness
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AI is changing search → just like Google changed search in 2009
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omnichannel is now standard → multichannel was in its early stages
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customer data is strategic capital → as Forrester predicted
In short:
Day 1 of 2009 is not history — it's a mirror.
Peder Inge Furseth
Peder Inge Furseth was a central academic driving force behind the San Francisco seminars and helped make the meeting with Silicon Valley relevant for Norwegian and European businesses. Through his role as professor at BI and as academic director of the program, he helped the participants put the lectures into a larger context – where technology, innovation, business development and people had to be seen in context.
In San Francisco, participants met entrepreneurs, researchers, technology leaders and investors from some of the world's most innovative environments. Furseth's strength was his ability to connect these experiences to practical challenges and opportunities in Norwegian businesses. He helped translate Silicon Valley's ideas and working methods into a Nordic context where collaboration, trust and long-term value creation are strong.
Throughout the entire seminar series, he was an important bridge builder between research, business and technology. For many participants, he therefore became more than a professional leader – he also became a mentor who inspired new thinking about innovation, digitalization and commercialization.
Read more about Peder Inge Furseth here
From studies and seminars to today's professional universe
The studies, seminars and field trips documented on this page are part of the knowledge base behind The Invisible Capital. Topics such as customers, technology, innovation, digitalization and value creation have followed developments over several decades – but the disciplines have also continued to develop.
At The Invisible Capital, we are therefore continuing to work on these questions in our own subject series. Here, we connect previous theory, research and experiences with newer knowledge, new technologies and today's challenges for people and businesses.
Innovation
Innovation is not just about new ideas. Value is created when knowledge, technology and ideas are developed into products, services, processes, organizational forms and business models that are actually used. The series on innovation goes from Schumpeter to modern innovation research and covers, among other things, incremental, radical, disruptive, open and user-driven innovation.
→ Explore the Innovation Series
The customer
The customer is not just the recipient of what the business produces. In a competitive market, the customer is a crucial determinant of whether the business actually succeeds in creating value. The series about the customer goes deeper into customer orientation, customer insight, customer experience, satisfaction, loyalty, trust and the encounter between people.
→ Read the customer series
Value creation
What does it really mean to create value – and who creates it? The series on value creation moves from economic theory and key researchers to a broader understanding of how people, expertise, institutions, businesses and the public sector contribute to value creation.
→ Read the series on value creation
Digitization
Digitalization has evolved from stand-alone technologies to a fundamental part of how businesses work and create value. The Digitalization from A–Z series follows the development through internet, web, e-commerce, search, UX, social, mobile, omnichannel, cloud, data, platforms and digital transformation – up to today’s AI First development.
→ Read the series Digitization from A–Z
Artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence represents the next chapter in digital evolution. In our own AI universe, we investigate how artificial intelligence works, how AI finds and uses information, how it evaluates sources and websites, and what the development can mean for people, businesses, and value creation.
→ Go to the articles about artificial intelligence
Recommended literature
The Big Switch
Nicholas Carr explores how the internet, cloud computing and digital services are changing the economy, commerce and consumer behaviour. The book shows how technology is gradually becoming a global infrastructure that drives innovation, personalisation and new digital business models.
